Security is Already the Government's Mandate – It's Time to Fix the Economy Before Ordinary Somalis Are Left Behind
I've been watching Mogadishu closely for years, and lately the federal government under President Hassan Sheikh Mohamud can't stop talking about how secure the capital has become. Roads that were closed for decades are reopening. Nighttime markets are buzzing again. Officials point to territorial gains against Al-Shabaab in Lower Shabelle, Turkish-supplied jets and tanks, and joint operations with AUSSOM as proof that the security fight is finally paying off. Fair enough – no one can deny the progress. Security is the core mandate of any government, especially in a country that's battled insurgency for decades. The constitution and every national plan put stability first for a reason.
But here's the uncomfortable truth: security alone doesn't feed families or pay school fees. While the government celebrates "Mogadishu rising," everyday residents are getting crushed by the economy. Inflation hit 5.1% in December 2025 – the highest for the year – according to the Somali National Bureau of Statistics. Food, health, education, and restaurant services all jumped. Then came the real gut punch in early March 2026: fuel prices skyrocketed 77% overnight because of the Middle East mess. Petrol went from about $0.65 a litre to $1.15 or even $1.50 in some spots. Bajaj drivers blocked Maka Al-Mukarrama Road in protest. Transport fares shot up. Small businesses that run on diesel generators are gasping. Families who were already scraping by on less than $2 a day are now choosing between food and fuel.
Who’s actually winning here? Not the average resident. The business community – the big importers, telecom giants, and well-connected traders – seems to be gaining even more influence. Ministers hold high-level meetings with them, promising industrial growth and easier regulations. Concessions at the port and airport keep flowing their way. Meanwhile, the rest of us watch prices climb and wonder where our taxes are going.
Let’s talk about those taxes. The government has been collecting a 5% sales tax in Mogadishu for years now, and it’s growing – from $34.9 million in 2023 toward projected $64 million+ by 2026. Domestic revenue overall is climbing too (the 2026 budget eyes around $460 million from local sources out of a $1.3 billion total). Banadir Regional Administration just passed a $63.8 million budget for 2026, talking big about infrastructure and economic development.
Yet look at the actual projects they’re bragging about – road rehab on B15-Caymiska, drainage extensions, dredging storm ponds, new offices. These aren’t being funded by the taxes residents pay at the market or the port. They’re straight from World Bank money under the Somalia Urban Resilience Project II and similar grants. The Recurrent Cost and Reform Financing Project funnels more donor cash into Banadir for basic systems. Even when local revenue rises, it seems to disappear into salaries, security ops, or opaque deals rather than visible relief for the people footing the bill.
So why has the economy been shoved to the back burner? Three clear reasons stand out.
First, the government keeps saying “security first.” Fair in theory – you can’t build an economy while Al-Shabaab extorts traders. But the budget documents themselves admit that spending on security and administration still eats up the lion’s share because we’re still in a post-conflict setup. Every fiscal framework paper repeats the same line: stability before everything else. The problem is, security has improved enough that we should be pivoting harder now. Instead, the focus stays locked on military hardware and political survival.
Second, aid dependency and political distraction. More than half the national budget still comes from grants and loans. The 2026 Budget Policy Framework openly talks about chasing more domestic revenue while quietly relying on donors for the rest. Meanwhile, the endless fights over the new constitution, federalism deals, and election timelines suck up energy that should go into economic reform. When leaders are busy bargaining with regional states and worrying about 2026 polls (or extensions), who has time to fix inflation or create real jobs?
Third, and this one stings, elite capture. The business class has the ear of Villa Somalia. They get the concessions, the tax breaks, the meetings. Ordinary taxpayers? We get higher fuel costs and protests met with silence.
Taxes collected in Mogadishu stay in Mogadishu on paper, but the visible projects keep coming from World Bank cheques instead of our own revenue. That tells you the money isn’t being turned into services for the people paying it.
Look, no one is saying abandon security. Al-Shabaab still launches attacks and runs shadow taxes in the countryside. But the government’s own narrative – “good security is here” – actually gives them permission to shift gears. The constitution doesn’t say “security forever and economy never.” It says build a stable, prosperous Somalia for all citizens.
Residents in Mogadishu are tired of hearing about F-16s while they calculate whether they can afford the bajaj to work tomorrow. Inflation and oil shocks aren’t abstract – they’re daily choices between eating and moving. The business community can keep thriving, but the government’s job is to make sure the rest of us don’t get left in the dust.
It’s time to treat the economy like the national emergency it is. Use those growing tax revenues for real local projects instead of donor-dependent ribbons. Cut the red tape that only big players can navigate. Tackle fuel subsidies or transport fixes before another protest shuts down the city. Security was the mandate – and they’re delivering. Now deliver on the economy, or the “rising Mogadishu” story will ring hollow for the people actually living it.
The ball is in the government’s court. Somalis have shown incredible resilience. We just need leaders who finally match that resilience with real economic attention.
But here's the uncomfortable truth: security alone doesn't feed families or pay school fees. While the government celebrates "Mogadishu rising," everyday residents are getting crushed by the economy. Inflation hit 5.1% in December 2025 – the highest for the year – according to the Somali National Bureau of Statistics. Food, health, education, and restaurant services all jumped. Then came the real gut punch in early March 2026: fuel prices skyrocketed 77% overnight because of the Middle East mess. Petrol went from about $0.65 a litre to $1.15 or even $1.50 in some spots. Bajaj drivers blocked Maka Al-Mukarrama Road in protest. Transport fares shot up. Small businesses that run on diesel generators are gasping. Families who were already scraping by on less than $2 a day are now choosing between food and fuel.
Who’s actually winning here? Not the average resident. The business community – the big importers, telecom giants, and well-connected traders – seems to be gaining even more influence. Ministers hold high-level meetings with them, promising industrial growth and easier regulations. Concessions at the port and airport keep flowing their way. Meanwhile, the rest of us watch prices climb and wonder where our taxes are going.
Let’s talk about those taxes. The government has been collecting a 5% sales tax in Mogadishu for years now, and it’s growing – from $34.9 million in 2023 toward projected $64 million+ by 2026. Domestic revenue overall is climbing too (the 2026 budget eyes around $460 million from local sources out of a $1.3 billion total). Banadir Regional Administration just passed a $63.8 million budget for 2026, talking big about infrastructure and economic development.
Yet look at the actual projects they’re bragging about – road rehab on B15-Caymiska, drainage extensions, dredging storm ponds, new offices. These aren’t being funded by the taxes residents pay at the market or the port. They’re straight from World Bank money under the Somalia Urban Resilience Project II and similar grants. The Recurrent Cost and Reform Financing Project funnels more donor cash into Banadir for basic systems. Even when local revenue rises, it seems to disappear into salaries, security ops, or opaque deals rather than visible relief for the people footing the bill.
So why has the economy been shoved to the back burner? Three clear reasons stand out.
First, the government keeps saying “security first.” Fair in theory – you can’t build an economy while Al-Shabaab extorts traders. But the budget documents themselves admit that spending on security and administration still eats up the lion’s share because we’re still in a post-conflict setup. Every fiscal framework paper repeats the same line: stability before everything else. The problem is, security has improved enough that we should be pivoting harder now. Instead, the focus stays locked on military hardware and political survival.
Second, aid dependency and political distraction. More than half the national budget still comes from grants and loans. The 2026 Budget Policy Framework openly talks about chasing more domestic revenue while quietly relying on donors for the rest. Meanwhile, the endless fights over the new constitution, federalism deals, and election timelines suck up energy that should go into economic reform. When leaders are busy bargaining with regional states and worrying about 2026 polls (or extensions), who has time to fix inflation or create real jobs?
Third, and this one stings, elite capture. The business class has the ear of Villa Somalia. They get the concessions, the tax breaks, the meetings. Ordinary taxpayers? We get higher fuel costs and protests met with silence.
Taxes collected in Mogadishu stay in Mogadishu on paper, but the visible projects keep coming from World Bank cheques instead of our own revenue. That tells you the money isn’t being turned into services for the people paying it.
Look, no one is saying abandon security. Al-Shabaab still launches attacks and runs shadow taxes in the countryside. But the government’s own narrative – “good security is here” – actually gives them permission to shift gears. The constitution doesn’t say “security forever and economy never.” It says build a stable, prosperous Somalia for all citizens.
Residents in Mogadishu are tired of hearing about F-16s while they calculate whether they can afford the bajaj to work tomorrow. Inflation and oil shocks aren’t abstract – they’re daily choices between eating and moving. The business community can keep thriving, but the government’s job is to make sure the rest of us don’t get left in the dust.
It’s time to treat the economy like the national emergency it is. Use those growing tax revenues for real local projects instead of donor-dependent ribbons. Cut the red tape that only big players can navigate. Tackle fuel subsidies or transport fixes before another protest shuts down the city. Security was the mandate – and they’re delivering. Now deliver on the economy, or the “rising Mogadishu” story will ring hollow for the people actually living it.
The ball is in the government’s court. Somalis have shown incredible resilience. We just need leaders who finally match that resilience with real economic attention.
Mohamed Hassan
Mohamed Hassan, a passionate Diaspora Somali-based civil society advocate, champions fair elections and national sovereignty while critiquing emotional narratives with sharp-witted calls for reason.
📧 Contact: moxassan@gmail.com
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